Outperforming Expectations

So, what does each candidate need to do in order to feel good coming out of Tuesday's NH primary?

Mitt Romney - Win and win BIG! (More than 20%)
Ron Paul - Challenge Romney but avoid a serious challenge for 2nd from Huntsman
Jon Huntsman - Get 2nd place
Newt Gingrich - Get over 10% of the vote and overtake Huntsman
Rick Santorum - Get into double digits of the vote and overtake Gingrich
Rick Perry - Get more than 4.5% of the vote
Buddy Roemer - Get more than 3% of the vote

Convention Delegates...How Many Does Your State Have?

How Does Your State Elect its Delegates to the 2012 Conventions?

New Hampshire is Romney's to lose

And while we're talking about polls, let's look at New Hampshire!



NH is Romney's to lose, and I strongly doubt that he will, with Gingrich declining he's lost his primary challenge to supremacy here. I think Mitt is a guaranteed win in New Hampshire unless Huntsman takes off in the next week. So far, there are no indications of that. The question in New Hampshire is who gets 2nd and 3rd place? New Hampshire is a proportional primary, so 2nd and possibly 3rd might score a few delegates. The cuttoff in NH is 10% so sorry MB, RS and RP, ya'll get no delegates from this state.

Clearly the Huntsmentum is on! Extrapolating forwards, Huntsman might overtake Ron Paul in the next week or so, but still he's unlikely to score a win in NH.

On election night, (January 10), I think the primary ends as such:
Romney first, Huntsman and Paul (possibly Gingrich) fighting over 2nd, 3rd and 4th and Bachmann, Perry and Santorum along with all the other minor NH contenders (see here)

New Hampshire is far more representative of the nation as a whole than Iowa is. A win in NH provides a boost going into Florida and South Carolina. While Iowa is fun to watch (especially this year), it tends to pick the most conservative candidates (It went for Huckabee in '08 and look where that ended up...on FOX news). New Hampshire is where the primaries really get going and Romney looks set for a win here

IA Polling Mess

Take a look at these interesting IA polling trends, as both Cain and Gingrich collapse, the four second-tier candidates are re-surging. Both Perry and Bachmann are back to the double digits, Santorum is almost there and even Huntsman is climbing (his climb is far more evident in NH). Paul really hurt himself on Iran on Thursday and Perry, Bachmann and Santorum are hammering him on it, so a small decline in Paul's polling may be in store. If these trends continue, you're going to have an absolute mess in Iowa heading into the caucuses with Romney, Paul and maybe Gingrich (if he doesn't collapse entirely) fighting over the win there and the second-tier candidates (probably not Huntsman) between 10-15% and the gap between the first and second tier around 5-8%. Notice how on the graph, no candidate has ever exceeded 35%. It shows how volatile the GOP field is this time around

The system is broken! Occupy UMD and Occupy Wall St and why I support them

We're very privileged to be in the 28% of Americans who can go to college (an abysmally low number) and most of us are in the upper-middle class. But I know of the struggle my friends who are not in this group encounter on a day-to-day basis and I will not let them be denied the same opportunity I had because I'm at a higher socio-economic standing than they are. That's simply wrong, and goes against everything I see as moral.

 I'm supporting this here because of that. Universities increasingly choose candidate's family background over academic ability and it needs to stop. They increasingly put their bottom line over the quality of education they provide. my family is paying tens of thousands of dollars a year for me to go here, and I'm grateful I won't have a mountain of debt, but I know of countless others who will, they'll spend 20 years paying it off. It's simply wrong to burden future citizens with that all because they need a degree to advance in this world. While I'm on the subject of exploding tuition costs, I pay that money, but I don't see much to show for it. We have a well-known housing problem here, and yet I've seen 1 new building go up, teachers still use outdated technology that has a bad habit of breaking when you look at it.

There's also little investment in the community around campus, the campus is independent of College Park entirely, if you go to State College, for example, the entire community is virtually dependent on Penn State with student run businesses and organizations. College Park has very few, if any, student investment in it and remains run-down.


On the broader scale, sure I'm jealous of the money the top 1% makes, and I strive to achieve that myself (knowing full well I will never make it there), but I worry that others who can make it there, won't be able to because of extreme competition in the labor market, especially from the global arena. America's failure to invest in it's future has resulted in European and Asian students being better informed about the world and smarter than Americans. If you want America to be the greatest nation on Earth, you need to start with it's youth.


And speaking of investment in ourselves, will you, for the love of god, support the investment enormous resources in this country. We're a first world nation with a third-world infrastructure (I know, 1st and 3rd world are not PC). Most bridges, tunnels and roadways in this country are in desperate need of renovation or repair, schools NEED better technology, our rail system is laughed at by the rest of the world. Unless we turn our resources away from fighting pointless wars, the rest of the world will rocket ahead of us and we will head down the same road as the British Empire.
 
On the topic of becoming irrelevant, American politics are going to drive us into the dirt, and here's one of OWS's main greivances, corporate influence in politics has made the government less responsive to the people and caters to corporate and special interests. I challenge you to find one national politician who hasn't received a corporate donation. Oh wait, you can't. Corporatism has infilitrated every aspect of American democracy. Corporate-financed lobbyists can push for more de-regulation that led us down the road to disaster beginning in the 1990's. They buy and sell elections like commodities, making your vote essentially worthless after Election Day. You really think petitioning Congress or the President does anything? You're dead wrong! I'm nearly sure any petition that does make it to a Congressional office is promptly trashed. Congress only cares about you during the election cycles every other minute, it tells you to f**k off and let me listen to my corporate lobbyists.

These corporate and special-interests favored policies have resulted in income inequality exceeding that of some African countries and the lowest tax rates in 50 years. The real disgusting part is this, thanks to all the deductions and special loopholes, effective tax rates, the actual % of income given as taxation for the middle class is HIGHER or approaching that of the top tax brackets.

Those corporate influences have also hit the Supreme Court, especially with its goddamned Citizens United v. FEC decision ruling that in effect corporations are people. No, corporations themselves are not people but they are run by people. It also costituted, what I consider to be the largest attack on American democracy ever by ruling that money equals speech. You've got to be joking! Nice job SCOTUS you've just silenced a massive section of the population. Consider this, you're a candidate in a very tough race, you get a donation from an individual of $150 and another donation from a PAC that helps you buy that needed air time to unleash a devastating attack on your opponent. Who are you going to give precedence to? In an ideal world, you should give more attention to the small donor, but our society isn't idealand more often than not, the PAC and its donors get preferential treatment.

Enough negativity! Time to propose solutions!

...and that is a post by itself

What's It About? A Look at the Occupy Movement

I hope people start to see beyond the wall of talking points regurgitated by the mainstream media and political establishment about Occupy Wall Street. It's not about trying to impose a radical leftist agenda on the country

• It's about corruption and the removal of money (at least corporate) from politics
• It's about the restoration of a government responsive to the people and not just the wealthiest interests.
• It's about restoring the tax system so that the middle class doesn't pay an ETR higher than that of the upper brackets.
• It's about reducing the income disparity, which is now worse than some African States
• It's about making sure the destructive practices that brought down the economy in 2008 can't happen again.
• It's about making sure those who brought down the economy are not rewarded for it
• It's about protecting students from deceptive banks
• It's about reducing the debt load on students and graduates
• It's about protecting homeowners from deceptive banking practices
• It's about protecting consumers from deceptive credit card companies
• It's about Wall Street giving back to Main Street
• It's about CEOs receiving pay more comparable to that of their workers
• It's about so much more than FOX, CNN and MSNBC can understand
• It's about restoring the neutrality of the media
• It's about restoring the fairness of elections
• It's about eliminating corporatism in the educational system
• It's about making American students competitive in the global stage
• It's about ending the assault on worker's rights
• It's about ending the assault on democracy
• It's about investing in our country
• It's about investing in our people
• It's about eliminating corporatism in Washington
• It's about eliminating corporate influence on Capitol Hill
• It's about turning a culture of greed into a culture of responsibility
• It's about protecting consumers
• It's about ensuring fair treatment of workers around the world
• It's about helping the poor, not leaving them to rot away their days
• It's about reducing America's staggering poverty rate
• It's about protecting our environment
• It's about ending discrimination
• It's about protecting homeowners
• It's about giving everyone a chance to succeed
• It's about ending unnecessary aggression
• It's about ending the buying and selling of elections
• It's about ending the buying and selling of politicans
• It's about making healthcare effective and affordable to everyone
• It's about making the world a better place for everyone

this message can't fit into a 15-second soundbyte

Budget woes

So the GOP wants to cut down the federal budget...fine, that's something I, as a Democrat, can stand behind. But there a few agencies that even Republicans should oppose cutting federal funding for. These agencies are the nation's life-savers, they do extraordinary work warning the public about incoming disasters. the recent Japan - Pacific earthquake and tsunami demonstrates the need for these agencies to be fully funded because they're interconnected and are at the forefront of protection and notice from natural disasters.

These life-saver agencies under the GOP ax are:

• the United States Geological Survey (USGS) - provides earthquake data and hydrologic (river and flood) data
• the National Weather Service (NWS)
• the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), parent agency of NWS
• the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) - provides tsunami detection and advisories for the Pacific rim, except for Alaska, British Columbia and the US West Coast
• the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center - provides tsunami detection and warnings for Alaska, British Columbia and the US West Coast
• the Caribbean and Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning Centers - currently planned for implementation, responsibility for these areas lies with PTWC at the moment

By cutting funding to these agencies, the idiots in Congress are DIRECTLY endangering you, your property and your family. 

Let's say, it's a summer day, it's hot and humid, and the atmosphere is said to be unstable, later that day a cold front arrives from the west, bringing with it severe and possibly tornadic thunderstorms. Due to budget cuts, the NWS office is under-staffed, what do you think is going to happen from there, inevitably, a few thunderstorms will be missed and the warnings are issued too late, and people may be harmed

Hurricanes and tornadoes are complicated systems to track and monitor, and these prove to be the most deadly regular natural occurrences. the time for strong winter storms is passing, and conditions are becoming more favorable for strong and severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and later this Spring, hurricanes

To Congress: 

When a natural disaster strikes your district, don't go blaming the NWS for failing to issue warnings as you will anyway, you brought this on yourself and as a result of your lack of common sense, your district suffered. You will try to shift the blame elsewhere, but people like me and the 40,000+ people who support the NWS will remind you of your vote earlier, and we will make sure you feel the repercussions of your misinformed action. you have an honorable goal, but you are achieving it incorrectly, in the wake of a terrible disaster such as the ones that struck Japan, Chile and Haiti. You don't cut funding for the agencies that save lives, if anything you give them more so they can continue to improve and save lives.

If you want to cut the budget, start with your own pay, follow the lead of John Yarumuth (D-KY) and give up a substantial portion if not all of your pay, your six-figure salaries comprise a substantial portion of the federal budget. Also, find and remove the redundancies in the government, overlapping programs only contribute to unnecessary red tape. There's plenty more to cut, but these agencies don't deserve the treatment your about to put them, and ultimately the country through.

With the arrival of hurricane and tornado season just around the corner, and the wake of the tragedy in Japan, the need for these agencies is more clear than ever. Please, re-think your stance and fully fund these agencies, you, your constituents and the country will thank you in the end. 

Conspiracy of the Day - Feb 17

There are America-hating liberal terrorist sympathizers among us who have formed a secret society that plans to turn your church into a drive-through abortion clinic

Conspiracy of the Day - Feb 16

All you need to do is connect the dots to understand ACORN and Obama's Czars are acting on orders from Keith Olbermann so they can decorate your house artwork of Mussolini

Mideast turmoil

So clearly, the turmoil that started in Tunisia has spread. Now massive protests are breaking out in Egypt and to a lesser extent, Algeria and Jordan. One thing these nations have in common is that they are autocratic "democracies". In Tunisia, the former President was in office for years before the protests toppeled him. Now Hosini Mubarak in Egypt is facing the largest protests in Egypr in many years. However, the Egyptian president will likley survive this round, he's already deployed the army. However, this will not quell popular unrest, it could flare up again in a bit. News has also just filtered in from Jordan that minor protests have broken out asking King Hussein for political reforms. Hussein, one of the more moderate rulers of the area will also survive these disruptions.

Seeing as revolution is contagious, I think protests might break out in
Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran. Most of these rulers will use force to defend their positions. the next few weeks might be deadly in the Middle East, these countries need to be closely monitored, and if the governments are toppled, then a moderate government needs to be installed, fast. Anarchic conditions are prime territory for Islamo-Fascist and Radical groups to act. Islamists have acted up in Tunisia, one of the secular nations of the Arab World. Watch this situation, we might be seeing the end of autocratic regimes in the Middle East.

CNN has been covering the Egyptian situation extremely well: http://www.cnn.com/
BBC also does a good job: http://www.bbc.co.uk/

The republican field just narrowed

Literally seconds ago, Mike Pence of Indiana announced he WILL NOT run for President in 2012. Scratch one. we seem to be days away from Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee announcing their decisions.

The field stands like this for 2012

Democrats:
Pro-Life activist Randall Terry of NY
President Barack Obama (Unannounced as of yet, but a 99.9% chance of running)

Republicans
Talk show host Herman Craig of GA
Political Consultant Fred Karger of CA
Jimmy McMillian of NY (The Rent is Too Damn High)

The United States of Shame :(

Well, this is depressing. Each state is labeled by what they're worst at

AK- Highest suicide rate

AL- Highest rates of stroke

AR- State with the worst credit score 

AZ- Highest rate of alcoholism

CA- Worst air pollution

CO- Highest cocaine use

CT- Highest rate of breast cancer

DE- Most abortions

FL- Highest rate of identity theft

GA- Highest rate of illness

HI- Highest cost of living

IA- Highest average age

ID- Lowest level of government control (how did you calculate this?)

IL- Highest rate of robbery

IN- Least "green" state (subjective)

KS- Lowest general public health

KY-Highest number of cancer-related deaths

LA- Highest incidence of gonorrhea

MA- Worst drivers (Nope, FL or VA takes that title)

MD- Highest incidence of AIDS

ME- Lowest average IQ

MI- Highest unemployment (outdated?)

MN- Highest number of Tornadoes (really?)

MO- Highest rate of bankruptcy

MS- Most obese state

MT- Highest rate of drunk driving

NC- Lowest teacher salary

ND- Ugliest residents (subjective)

NH- Highest corporate taxes (this is a bad thing?)

NE- Highest rate of violence on females

NJ- Highest taxes

NM- Most anti-social (subjective)

NV- Highest crime rate

NY- Longest commute (agreed)

PA- Highest rate of arson

OH- Nerdiest state (opinion)

OK- Highest number of female criminals

OR- Highest homeless population

RI- Highest rate of drug use (Brown U?)

SC- Most mobile homes (this is bad?)

SD- Most rapes

TN- Most corrupt state (really?, I think this is subjective)

TX- Lowest rate of high school graduation

UT- Highest porn usage (hypocrites)

VA- Highest number of motorcycle-related deaths

VT- Highest rate of infertility (also the least use of deodorant)

WA- Highest rate of bestiality

WV- Highest rate of heart attacks

WI- Highest rate of binge drinking

WY- Highest number of fatal car crashes

the opposite of this will be posted soon

2010 Census changes the House

As expected, the 2010 census has changed the dynamics of the House. 12 seats shifted in total, almost all seats went to republican states.

the breakdown

Gaining 4: Texas
Gaining 2: Florida
Gaining 1: Washington, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina
Losing 1: Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Louisiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Massachusetts
Losing 2: New York and Ohio

the map:

Analysis to come later

Swing State Project wins Again!

With the 2012 elections on everyone's mind, SSP has complied a list of the 10 GOP senators likely to be tea-bagged to death in 2012's primaries.

1. Olympia Snowe - Maine
2. Orrin Hatch - Utah
3. Kay Bailey Hutchinson - Texas
4. Richard Lugar - Indiana
5. Bob Corker - Tennessee
6. Scott Brown - Massachusetts
7. John Ensign - Nevada
8. Roger Wicker - Mississippi
9. John Kyl - Arizona
10. John Barrasso - Wyoming

If Olympia Snowe loses in Maine, moderate Republicans will seriously be endangered. She's one GOP senator I can stand. 

Thanksgiving

Do you know what Thanksgiving means? It means Jordan goes on break for a while and it also means political stupidity is overshadowed by the crowds at Toys R Us in Times Square.

Who's running in 2012?

So far, none of the major Republicans have formally declared with the FEC, two Republicans have filed with the FEC. One from Montana and the other from California.

An interesting side note, the President has been shutting down all talk of 2012, but he will likley go unchallenged in the primaries, beginning in just over a year.

On the other side, numerous players have been speculated on. The list includes

• Former Governor Sarah Palin - Alaska
• Former Governor Mitt Romney - Massachussets
• Governor Haley Barbour - Mississippi
• Former UN Ambassador John Bolton - Maryland
• Senator Scott Brown - Massachusetts
• Former Governor Jeb Bush - Florida
• Governor Chris Christie - New Jersey
• Senator John Coryn - Texas
• Governor Mitch Daniels - Indiana
• Senator Jim DeMint - South Carolina
• Former Speaker Newt Gingrich - Georgia
• Former NYC Mayor Rudy Guiliani - New York
• Former Governor Mike Huckabee - Arkansas
• Governor Bobby Jindal - Louisiana
• Former Governor Gary E. Johnston - New Mexico
• Governor Bob McDonnell - Virginia
• Representative Ron Paul - Texas
• Former Governor Tim Pawlenty - Minnesota
• Representative Mike Pence - Indiana
• Governor Rick Perry - Texas
• Senator Marco Rubio - Florida
• Former Senator Rick Santorum - Pennsylvania
• Senator John Thune - South Dakota
• Donald Trump - New York

Personally, I think the Republican primary will be a nasty race between Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich, with a number of minor candidates. But the ultimate result, I think still leans towards President Obama. History has shown that incumbent Presidents are the hardest to defeat and if Obama can regain the energy of 2008, he will prevail. 

A new commenting policy

To increase the usefulness of this blog, please feel free to add comments to the wide variety of posts. I recently discovered that commenting was disabled

:D

Senatorial Victory Margins

Republican Casualty List

As expected, far smaller than the Democratic one
California

Open Seat, Governor

Delaware

Open Seat, At-Large District

Hawai’i

Open Seat, Governor

Representative Charles Djou

Louisiana

Representative Joseph Cao

Rhode Island

Open Seat, Governor

Vermont

Open Seat, Governor

Democratic Casualty List

This is a list of all Democratic losses last night, this will be updated as re-counts and challenges are filed

Alabama

Representative Bobby Bright

Arizona

Representative Ann Kirkpatrick

Representative Harry Mitchell

Arkansas

Open Seat, 1^st District

Open Seat, 2^nd District

Senator Blanche Lincoln

Colorado

Representative Betsy Markey

Representative John Salazar

Florida

Representative Alan Grayson

Representative Allen Boyd

Representative Ron Klein

Representative Suzanne Kosmas

Georgia

Representative Jim Marshall

Idaho

Representative Walt Minnick

Illinois

Open Seat, Senator

Representative Bill Foster

Representative Debbie Halvorson

Representative Phil Hare

Indiana

Open Seat, 9^th District

Open Seat, Senator

Representative Baron Hill

Iowa

Governor Chet Culver

Kansas

Open Seat, 3^rd District

Open Seat, Governor

Louisiana

Open Seat, 3^rd District

Maryland

Representative Frank Kratovil

Maine

Open Seat, Governor

Michigan

Open Seat, 1^st District

Open Seat, Governor

Representative Mark Schauer

Minnesota

Representative David Oberstar

Mississippi

Representative Travis Childers

Representative Gene Taylor

Missouri

Representative Ike Skelton

New Hampshire

Open Seat, 2^nd District

Representative Carol Shea-Porter

New Jersey

Representative John Adler

New Mexico

Open Seat, Governor

Representative Harry Teague

New York

Open Seat, 29^th District

Representative Michael McMahon

Representative John Hall

Representative Michael Arcuri

North Carolina

Representative Bob Etheridge

North Dakota

Open Seat, Senator

Representative Earl Pomeroy

Ohio

Governor Ted Strickland

Representative Charlie Wilson

Representative John Bocceri

Representative Mary Jo Kilroy

Representative Steve Derihaus

Representative Zack Space

Oklahoma

Open Seat, Governor

Nevada

Representative Dina Titus

Pennsylvania

Open Seat, 8^th District

Open Seat, Governor

Open Seat, Senator

Representative Chris Carney

Representative Kathy Dahlkamper

Representative Paul Kanjorski

South Carolina

Representative John Spratt

South Dakota

Representative Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin

Tennessee

Open Seat, 6^th District

Open Seat, 8^th District

Open Seat, Governor

Representative Lincoln Davis

Texas

Representative Chet Edwards

Representative Ciro Rodriguez

Virginia

Representative Glenn Nye

Representative Rick Boucher

Representative Tom Periello

Washington

Open Seat, 3^rd District

West Virginia

Open Seat, 1^st District

Wisconsin

Open Seat, 7^th District

Open Seat, Governor

Representative Steve Kagen

Senator Russ Feingold

Wyoming

Open Seat, Governor

still outstanding!

These districts wake up without Representatives:

1. NY-29
2. VA-11
3. KY-6
4. IL-8
5. TX-27
6. WA-2
7. WA-9
8. CA-11
9. CA-20
10. AZ-7
11. AZ-8

These states wake up without Senators

1. Alaska
2. Colorado
3. Washington

These states wake up without Governors

1. Oregon
2. Minnesota
3. Illinois
4. Connecticut
5. Vermont
6. Maine

Jordan's pre-election "rant"

Each of the following scenarios is a potential representation of what the country will wake up to on Wednesday morning. The numbers are entirely fictional; they are just there to give you an idea of what could happen if the conditions align

Scenario 1:

Imagine you're a commuter to New York. You board the train, find a seat and begin reading the New York Times. You read the headline: "Democrats Lose the House, Biden Steps in as Senate Tiebreaker". Across the country, Democrats are in shock. 84 seats in the House lost. Even 10 term Democrats are on the casualty list! Ike Skelton of Missouri, Sanford Bishop of Georgia, Frank Kratovil of Maryland and many others are named as the defeated. Even Barney Frank's race wasn't called until 2am.

The Democratic leadership is in turmoil. Chris Van Hollen, DCCC Chair, is rumored to be planning to step down. Senator Menendez of NJ is also rumored to step down as chair of the DSCC. Nancy Pelosi is preparing to serve out her last term in the House. Speculations abound as to who will be Minority Leader. On the other side, it’s a different story. John Boehner declares his intent to be Speaker along with a few others. Eric Cantor will assume Majority Leader in January.

The Senatorial story is no better. 8 seats have fallen. Recounts are underway in West Virginia and Colorado. Washington hasn't finished reporting its results though Patty Murray is behind by 15,000 votes. Harry Reid (NV), Russ Feingold (WI), Blanche Lincoln (AR), Michael Bennett (CO) and Joe Manchin (WV) have all been defeated. In Florida, Kendrick Meek scored only 11% of the vote. Barbara Boxer held California but only by half a percent. Even "safe" Democrats Mikulski (MD), Coons (DE) and Wyden (OR) had a stressful night, but ultimately prevailed, but only by 4%. Democrats release a statement condemning the newcomers Angle (NV), Johnson (WI), Buck (CO), Paul (KY), Rubio (FL), Miller (AK), Ayotte (NH), and Toomey (PA) as radical tea partiers who will not listen to their constituents. Democrats search among themselves for a new Majority Leader.

The gubernatorial situation offers little comfort. O'Malley held MD, Patrick held MA, Brown won CA and Lynch held New Hampshire and the good news stops there. Republican Governors will assume office in Vermont, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania among others. Alex Sink lost in FL by 10%; Perry won Texas as expected but by 20%. Ted Strickland and Chet Culver lost by 14% each. Dan Hickenlooper lost to Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo by 3%.

Pundits struggle to find words to describe what happened. Wave doesn't cut it, flood doesn't either. Tsunami? Nope. Surge? Nope. Storm? Maybe. Hurricane? Revolution? The list continues

The nation and the world are in shock. President Obama considers his options, now severely limited.

Scenario 2:

You’re a wealthy Republican from Potomac, MD. You step out your door, pick up the Washington Post and promptly drop your coffee when you read the headline. “Democrats Hold Congress, Suffer Minor Losses in Governor’s Races”'

Only 20 House seats fell, 5 republicans lost! Democrats suffered a net loss of only 1 senate seat. Harry Reid handily defeated Sharron Angle, Boxer crushed Fiorina, Bennett held against Buck. Democrats also upset Republicans in Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Indiana. A 3-way recount is underway in Alaska. Senators in the Southeast won, but only by slim margins. Coons and Mikulski obliterated their opponents. Rising stars Toomey (PA), Kirk (IL), Raese (WV), Johnson (WI), Paul (KY), Buck (CO), Rossi (WA), Rubio (FL), Miller (AK) and O’Donnell (DE) were all shot down.

The Governor’s results make you sick to your stomach. O’Malley won by 8%, Strickland by 4%. Perry won but by under 1%. Sink crushed Scott in Florida, Brown destroyed Whitman in California. Jan Brewer won by 0.7%. Democrats held their seats in the Midwest, fending off challenges in Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio and Illinois.

Rumors fly that the Tea Party will stop supporting Republican candidates and form a third party because the poor performance. Obama, the DNC, the DCCC and the DSCC are thrilled. Michael Steele is forced to resign as head of the RNC.

Pundits struggle to explain what happened. How did the situation backfire so badly on the Republicans? The search for answers begins.

Scenario 3:

You’re an Independent in Chicago; you pick up the Tribune and read the headline, “Congress Hangs in the Balance as Recounts Begin”

Both parties have scored 216 house seats with 3 seats still too close to call. Congress will remain in Limbo for days, weeks maybe a month while the recounts are conducted and legal challenges are filed.

6 Senate seats changed hands with races in Wisconsin, Washington, Illinois and West Virginia still not called. Charlie Crist and Lisa Murkowski both won their races and are under pressure to reveal who they will caucus with when the new Senate takes their seats in January. Independents won Governor’s races in Maine and Rhode Island and put up a strong showing in Minnesota.

---------------------------------------------

So, what will determine what scenario comes to pass? One word: turnout. It is critical that both parties turnout their supporters in large quantities. Here’s a short, simplified explanation of what happens given the circumstances

Democrat	Republican	Result
High	High	Scenario III
Low	High	Scenario I
High	Low	Scenario II

There are a number of other factors that will play into the results but turnout will prove the largest, especially among Democrats. Low Democratic turnout will spell disaster for them not only this year but possibly 6 years from now. And in the media department, turnout stats will be used to evaluate whether or not the “enthusiasm gap” materialized and to what extent.

I must reiterate, if you do not vote, your authority to complain about what happens flies out the window, bounces off buildings, hits the road where it is run over by an 18-wheeler, an ambulance and then a hearse, falls into the sewer and is washed away.

Tonight and tomorrow morning, the final projections will be released.

There will of course be surprises, given the inaccuracy of polls and the projections. But the ultimate decider of any election is the voter. You will decide who controls Congress, which Senators and Governors stay or go. You determine the fate of President Obama’s agenda. 

The potential exists for a historic result from a historic election. The fate of the nation rests in our hands, exercise the most powerful right a citizen has and vote!