Usually, Maryland doesn't attract much political attention, although this year, I think it will be a different story, a similar repeat of 2006 when O'Malley was challenging Ehrlich. Although the talk seems to have quited down, MD political pundits are analyzing and forecasting the Palin impact and other factors that will go into this race. They have their lists and I have mine.
The questions that will influence the ultimate result of the Gubernatorial election will be:
- Does Brian Murphy receive more out-of-state endorsements and funds due to Palin's endorsement?
- When and Where does Obama campaign in MD?
- If Murphy does become a more visible challenger, how does and to what extent does Ehrlich respond?
- After the September 12 primary, what do the Ehrlich/Murphy supporters do?
- Does the small scandal around Mary Kane's (Ehrlich's running mate) husband develop further?
- When do O'Malley and Ehrlich start flinging attack ads at each other?
- What is the fundrasing ratio between O'Malley and Ehrlich/Murphy?
- What is the final result of the Republican primary?
- Who and by what margins wins Montgomery, Charles, Baltimore and Howard Counties?
- What do the results in Baltimore look like?
- Do University students vote?
- What impact do the Congressional elections have?
- Which campaign mobilizes resources better and faster?
- Does the Tea Party have any impact on the Republican primary?
- What kind of screw-ups get media attention?
- When and What do they debate?
The campaigns are confident of victory, but only one will prevail. History is stacked against the Democrats but MD's demographics favor the Democrats. This race was filthy in 2006 and it will be in 2010.
An interesting side-note: Senior Senator Barbara Mikulski has 20 opponents
- 6 Democrats
- 11 Republicans
- 1 Constitution
- 1 Green
- 1 Libertarian
