Final Analysis of the MD Early Vote

Let's get right to it. MD Early voting is over and the results are in (the counts, not the number of votes).

As we can clearly see from this graph, Democrats slammed Republicans in the Early Vote. Based on the data the following is to be assumed

1. Almost all of the Republican votes went to Bob Ehrlich or Eric Wargotz
2. Almost all of the Democratic votes went to Martin O'Malley and Barbara Mikulski
3. The independent votes are split, with a larger fraction going to Ehrlich

And, I have some rankings for you, showing where the best performing areas were. First by congressional district

1. 1st District (Eastern Shore) (Kratovil)
2. 7th District (Howard County and Parts of Baltimore) (Cummings)
3. 4th District (Eastern Montgomery and Western PG) (Edwards)
4. 5th District (Southern Maryland and PG County) (Hoyer)
5. 3rd District (Parts of Baltimore County) (Sarbanes)
6. 2nd District (Parts of Baltimore and Harford Counties) (Ruppersberger)
7. 8th District (Western and Southern Montgomery County) (Van Hollen)
8. 6th District (Northern Maryland) (Bartlett)

The low performance of the 6th and 8th districts should be extremely troubling for Ehrlich, many of his votes will come from the Northern parts of the state and a sizable portion will come from Montgomery County. O'Malley should be pleased at the performance of the districts covering Baltimore and Prince George's counties. Lots of his votes will come from here. Because the board of elections doesn't release party stats by district, no analysis for the 1st district, a key race, can be provided.

Our next ranking is by counties

1. Talbot - 14.46%
2. Kent - 13.03%
3. Queen Anne's - 9.12%
4. Anne Arundel - 8.74%
5. Howard - 8.73%
6. Caroline - 8.38%
7. Worcester - 7.80%
8. Prince George's - 7.45%
9. Harford - 7.44%
10. Wicomico - 7.32%
11. Somerset - 7.31%
12. Dorchester - 6.82%
13. Baltimore County - 6.34%
14. Calvert - 5.80%
15. Charles - 5.70%
16. Cecil - 5.66%
17. Baltimore City - 5.44%
18. Garrett - 5.06%
19. Carroll - 4.95%
20. Saint Mary's - 4.85%
21. Montgomery - 4.66%
22. Frederick - 4.22%
23. Washington - 2.52%
24. Allegany 2.42%

The State turnout rate was 6.33%

Please note: these county ranks are biased against the more populous counties (Montgomery, PG, Baltimore). The Eastern Shore counties have smaller populations and therefore larger turnout rates. 

In general, the enthusiasm gap or Republican tide doesn't seem to be materializing in Maryland. 

New Pages

So I have published some new pages along the top (look at them! That's why they're there).
Here's what each page is

2010 House: the 109 top House Races
2010 Senate: the Senate Races
2010 Governor: the Governor's Races
Poll Closing Times: Use this on election day to gauge when you may know who your Congressman, Senator or Governor will be

Early Voting Update 10/28

Now 170,029 ballots have been cast. Democrats are exhibiting a huge lead in Early Voting, which ends in a few hours.

Early Voting Update 10/25

So far in this election 95,231 ballots have been cast in Maryland. here's the current breakdown

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It is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay to early to interpret these results, but it seems that the "enthusiasm gap" doesn't exist in Maryland

This year is not going to be good for Democrats. But there is a silver lining.

The Senatorial picture isn't pretty but the good news is Dems will hold the majority in the Senate, though greatly reduced. In order for the Republicans to take the Senate they need to take West Virginia and knock out one of the following

1. Sen. Boxer (California)
2. Sen. Murray (Washington)
3. Sen. Mikulski (Maryland)

And the picture isn't all rosy for the Republicans, a number of their projected gains or holds are by very slim margins. Illinois, Nevada, Colorado and Kentucky are all toss-up states and Alaska nominee Joe Miller is fending off a two-way challenge from Democrat Scott McAdams and Incumbent (defeated) Senator Lisa Murkowski.

The picture is far gloomier on the Democratic side, who will suffer symbolic and practical defeats. Although Obama no longer serves in the Senate, his seat is of major symbolic importance for both parties. The IL senate race leans Republican right now. The Democrats might also lose Majority Leader Harry Reid and Democratic titan, Russ Feingold of Wisconsin. Senator Bennett (CO) and Senator Lincoln (AR) are also at a disadvantage. They will also lose open Senate seats in North Dakota, Indiana and Pennsylvania. 

Some thoughts

I do not trust polls, I never have and never will. Its simple logic, polling 700 people in a state with an electorate of nearly 2 million is simply not accurate. PERIOD. I think if you're going to poll for anything you need at least 1,000 respondents. Also, national polls are bullshit. Not only because of the small sample sizes but also because national trends, especially in Congress don't seem to carry over to the districts. It has been said that this year is a bad one for Democrats with Dems trailing Republicans in generic ballot polls. But if you look at the map, traditional Democratic strongholds like LA, NY, the Northeast and Chicago are firmly Democratic. 538.com gives Republicans 0% to 1% chances to win in many of those districts.

Back to MD for a bit. In MD, registered Dems outnumber Republicans 2:1. Even if Ehrlich managed to turnout 100% of the Republican vote, it would give him a good number but not enough. That's why crossing party boundaries is essential for any Republican to win in Maryland, with the exception of Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD6), his district is solidly red.

If Ehrlich or Eric Wargotz want to stand a chance against Democratic titans, Martin O'Malley and Barbara Mikulski, they need to change their message. Ehrlich needs to head back to center and Wargotz should just give up right now, Tea Party values do not coincide with the average Marylander. Ehrlich, today, suffered a major setback, the Republican Governor's Association, which has been running ads in the DC area, is pulling those ads off the air and cutting its investment by 50%. A Gonzales poll, released today also gives MOM a 5-point lead (It is important to note, Gonzales tends to lean to the right).

What do you think? Feel free to comment below

PS. I do not care who you vote for, JUST F***ING VOTE, either by mail, early or on Election Day. If you don't you have no authority to whine.

Battle for the Senate- October 18 Update

Party
Democrats : 51 Seats
Republicans: 49 Seats

Pickups

Democrats : none

Republicans: Nevada (Reid), Colorado (Bennett), North Dakota (Open), Arkansas (Lincoln), Indiana (Open), Wisconsin (Feingold), Illinois (Open) and Pennsylvania (Open)

New Senators:

1. Angle - NV
2. Buck - CO
3. Miller - AK
4. Hoeven - ND
5. Boozman - AR
6. Coats - IN
7. Johnson - WI
8. Tommey - PA
9. Kirk - IL
10. Manchin - WV
11. Paul - KY
12. Ayotte - NH
13. Rubio - FL
14. Blunt - MO
15. Blumenthal - CT
16. Portman - OH
17. Coons - DE
18. Moran - KS

Majority

Democrats +1

Early Voting Update 10/18

As of October 18, the 2010 elections have begun in
Vermont, South Dakota, Iowa, Wyoming, Nebraska, Ohio, Wisconsin, California, Indiana, Arizona, Illinois, Kansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico and Nevada, Washington and Oregon

This week the election begins in
Alaska, Hawaii, Utah, Colorado, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Dakota, Florida, Maryland and Washington DC

Oklahoma begins next week. Any state not mentioned doesn't have early voting

Progress Map: