Each of the following scenarios is a potential representation of what the country will wake up to on Wednesday morning. The numbers are entirely fictional; they are just there to give you an idea of what could happen if the conditions align
Scenario 1:
Imagine you're a commuter to New York. You board the train, find a seat and begin reading the New York Times. You read the headline: "Democrats Lose the House, Biden Steps in as Senate Tiebreaker". Across the country, Democrats are in shock. 84 seats in the House lost. Even 10 term Democrats are on the casualty list! Ike Skelton of Missouri, Sanford Bishop of Georgia, Frank Kratovil of Maryland and many others are named as the defeated. Even Barney Frank's race wasn't called until 2am.
The Democratic leadership is in turmoil. Chris Van Hollen, DCCC Chair, is rumored to be planning to step down. Senator Menendez of NJ is also rumored to step down as chair of the DSCC. Nancy Pelosi is preparing to serve out her last term in the House. Speculations abound as to who will be Minority Leader. On the other side, it’s a different story. John Boehner declares his intent to be Speaker along with a few others. Eric Cantor will assume Majority Leader in January.
The Senatorial story is no better. 8 seats have fallen. Recounts are underway in West Virginia and Colorado. Washington hasn't finished reporting its results though Patty Murray is behind by 15,000 votes. Harry Reid (NV), Russ Feingold (WI), Blanche Lincoln (AR), Michael Bennett (CO) and Joe Manchin (WV) have all been defeated. In Florida, Kendrick Meek scored only 11% of the vote. Barbara Boxer held California but only by half a percent. Even "safe" Democrats Mikulski (MD), Coons (DE) and Wyden (OR) had a stressful night, but ultimately prevailed, but only by 4%. Democrats release a statement condemning the newcomers Angle (NV), Johnson (WI), Buck (CO), Paul (KY), Rubio (FL), Miller (AK), Ayotte (NH), and Toomey (PA) as radical tea partiers who will not listen to their constituents. Democrats search among themselves for a new Majority Leader.
The gubernatorial situation offers little comfort. O'Malley held MD, Patrick held MA, Brown won CA and Lynch held New Hampshire and the good news stops there. Republican Governors will assume office in Vermont, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania among others. Alex Sink lost in FL by 10%; Perry won Texas as expected but by 20%. Ted Strickland and Chet Culver lost by 14% each. Dan Hickenlooper lost to Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo by 3%.
Pundits struggle to find words to describe what happened. Wave doesn't cut it, flood doesn't either. Tsunami? Nope. Surge? Nope. Storm? Maybe. Hurricane? Revolution? The list continues
The nation and the world are in shock. President Obama considers his options, now severely limited.
Scenario 2:
You’re a wealthy Republican from Potomac, MD. You step out your door, pick up the Washington Post and promptly drop your coffee when you read the headline. “Democrats Hold Congress, Suffer Minor Losses in Governor’s Races”'
Only 20 House seats fell, 5 republicans lost! Democrats suffered a net loss of only 1 senate seat. Harry Reid handily defeated Sharron Angle, Boxer crushed Fiorina, Bennett held against Buck. Democrats also upset Republicans in Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Indiana. A 3-way recount is underway in Alaska. Senators in the Southeast won, but only by slim margins. Coons and Mikulski obliterated their opponents. Rising stars Toomey (PA), Kirk (IL), Raese (WV), Johnson (WI), Paul (KY), Buck (CO), Rossi (WA), Rubio (FL), Miller (AK) and O’Donnell (DE) were all shot down.
The Governor’s results make you sick to your stomach. O’Malley won by 8%, Strickland by 4%. Perry won but by under 1%. Sink crushed Scott in Florida, Brown destroyed Whitman in California. Jan Brewer won by 0.7%. Democrats held their seats in the Midwest, fending off challenges in Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio and Illinois.
Rumors fly that the Tea Party will stop supporting Republican candidates and form a third party because the poor performance. Obama, the DNC, the DCCC and the DSCC are thrilled. Michael Steele is forced to resign as head of the RNC.
Pundits struggle to explain what happened. How did the situation backfire so badly on the Republicans? The search for answers begins.
Scenario 3:
You’re an Independent in Chicago; you pick up the Tribune and read the headline, “Congress Hangs in the Balance as Recounts Begin”
Both parties have scored 216 house seats with 3 seats still too close to call. Congress will remain in Limbo for days, weeks maybe a month while the recounts are conducted and legal challenges are filed.
6 Senate seats changed hands with races in Wisconsin, Washington, Illinois and West Virginia still not called. Charlie Crist and Lisa Murkowski both won their races and are under pressure to reveal who they will caucus with when the new Senate takes their seats in January. Independents won Governor’s races in Maine and Rhode Island and put up a strong showing in Minnesota.
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So, what will determine what scenario comes to pass? One word: turnout. It is critical that both parties turnout their supporters in large quantities. Here’s a short, simplified explanation of what happens given the circumstances
| Democrat | Republican | Result |
| High | High | Scenario III |
| Low | High | Scenario I |
| High | Low | Scenario II |
There are a number of other factors that will play into the results but turnout will prove the largest, especially among Democrats. Low Democratic turnout will spell disaster for them not only this year but possibly 6 years from now. And in the media department, turnout stats will be used to evaluate whether or not the “enthusiasm gap” materialized and to what extent.
I must reiterate, if you do not vote, your authority to complain about what happens flies out the window, bounces off buildings, hits the road where it is run over by an 18-wheeler, an ambulance and then a hearse, falls into the sewer and is washed away.
Tonight and tomorrow morning, the final projections will be released.
There will of course be surprises, given the inaccuracy of polls and the projections. But the ultimate decider of any election is the voter. You will decide who controls Congress, which Senators and Governors stay or go. You determine the fate of President Obama’s agenda.
The potential exists for a historic result from a historic election. The fate of the nation rests in our hands, exercise the most powerful right a citizen has and vote!
