Convention Delegates...How Many Does Your State Have?

How Does Your State Elect its Delegates to the 2012 Conventions?

New Hampshire is Romney's to lose

And while we're talking about polls, let's look at New Hampshire!



NH is Romney's to lose, and I strongly doubt that he will, with Gingrich declining he's lost his primary challenge to supremacy here. I think Mitt is a guaranteed win in New Hampshire unless Huntsman takes off in the next week. So far, there are no indications of that. The question in New Hampshire is who gets 2nd and 3rd place? New Hampshire is a proportional primary, so 2nd and possibly 3rd might score a few delegates. The cuttoff in NH is 10% so sorry MB, RS and RP, ya'll get no delegates from this state.

Clearly the Huntsmentum is on! Extrapolating forwards, Huntsman might overtake Ron Paul in the next week or so, but still he's unlikely to score a win in NH.

On election night, (January 10), I think the primary ends as such:
Romney first, Huntsman and Paul (possibly Gingrich) fighting over 2nd, 3rd and 4th and Bachmann, Perry and Santorum along with all the other minor NH contenders (see here)

New Hampshire is far more representative of the nation as a whole than Iowa is. A win in NH provides a boost going into Florida and South Carolina. While Iowa is fun to watch (especially this year), it tends to pick the most conservative candidates (It went for Huckabee in '08 and look where that ended up...on FOX news). New Hampshire is where the primaries really get going and Romney looks set for a win here

IA Polling Mess

Take a look at these interesting IA polling trends, as both Cain and Gingrich collapse, the four second-tier candidates are re-surging. Both Perry and Bachmann are back to the double digits, Santorum is almost there and even Huntsman is climbing (his climb is far more evident in NH). Paul really hurt himself on Iran on Thursday and Perry, Bachmann and Santorum are hammering him on it, so a small decline in Paul's polling may be in store. If these trends continue, you're going to have an absolute mess in Iowa heading into the caucuses with Romney, Paul and maybe Gingrich (if he doesn't collapse entirely) fighting over the win there and the second-tier candidates (probably not Huntsman) between 10-15% and the gap between the first and second tier around 5-8%. Notice how on the graph, no candidate has ever exceeded 35%. It shows how volatile the GOP field is this time around

The system is broken! Occupy UMD and Occupy Wall St and why I support them

We're very privileged to be in the 28% of Americans who can go to college (an abysmally low number) and most of us are in the upper-middle class. But I know of the struggle my friends who are not in this group encounter on a day-to-day basis and I will not let them be denied the same opportunity I had because I'm at a higher socio-economic standing than they are. That's simply wrong, and goes against everything I see as moral.

 I'm supporting this here because of that. Universities increasingly choose candidate's family background over academic ability and it needs to stop. They increasingly put their bottom line over the quality of education they provide. my family is paying tens of thousands of dollars a year for me to go here, and I'm grateful I won't have a mountain of debt, but I know of countless others who will, they'll spend 20 years paying it off. It's simply wrong to burden future citizens with that all because they need a degree to advance in this world. While I'm on the subject of exploding tuition costs, I pay that money, but I don't see much to show for it. We have a well-known housing problem here, and yet I've seen 1 new building go up, teachers still use outdated technology that has a bad habit of breaking when you look at it.

There's also little investment in the community around campus, the campus is independent of College Park entirely, if you go to State College, for example, the entire community is virtually dependent on Penn State with student run businesses and organizations. College Park has very few, if any, student investment in it and remains run-down.


On the broader scale, sure I'm jealous of the money the top 1% makes, and I strive to achieve that myself (knowing full well I will never make it there), but I worry that others who can make it there, won't be able to because of extreme competition in the labor market, especially from the global arena. America's failure to invest in it's future has resulted in European and Asian students being better informed about the world and smarter than Americans. If you want America to be the greatest nation on Earth, you need to start with it's youth.


And speaking of investment in ourselves, will you, for the love of god, support the investment enormous resources in this country. We're a first world nation with a third-world infrastructure (I know, 1st and 3rd world are not PC). Most bridges, tunnels and roadways in this country are in desperate need of renovation or repair, schools NEED better technology, our rail system is laughed at by the rest of the world. Unless we turn our resources away from fighting pointless wars, the rest of the world will rocket ahead of us and we will head down the same road as the British Empire.
 
On the topic of becoming irrelevant, American politics are going to drive us into the dirt, and here's one of OWS's main greivances, corporate influence in politics has made the government less responsive to the people and caters to corporate and special interests. I challenge you to find one national politician who hasn't received a corporate donation. Oh wait, you can't. Corporatism has infilitrated every aspect of American democracy. Corporate-financed lobbyists can push for more de-regulation that led us down the road to disaster beginning in the 1990's. They buy and sell elections like commodities, making your vote essentially worthless after Election Day. You really think petitioning Congress or the President does anything? You're dead wrong! I'm nearly sure any petition that does make it to a Congressional office is promptly trashed. Congress only cares about you during the election cycles every other minute, it tells you to f**k off and let me listen to my corporate lobbyists.

These corporate and special-interests favored policies have resulted in income inequality exceeding that of some African countries and the lowest tax rates in 50 years. The real disgusting part is this, thanks to all the deductions and special loopholes, effective tax rates, the actual % of income given as taxation for the middle class is HIGHER or approaching that of the top tax brackets.

Those corporate influences have also hit the Supreme Court, especially with its goddamned Citizens United v. FEC decision ruling that in effect corporations are people. No, corporations themselves are not people but they are run by people. It also costituted, what I consider to be the largest attack on American democracy ever by ruling that money equals speech. You've got to be joking! Nice job SCOTUS you've just silenced a massive section of the population. Consider this, you're a candidate in a very tough race, you get a donation from an individual of $150 and another donation from a PAC that helps you buy that needed air time to unleash a devastating attack on your opponent. Who are you going to give precedence to? In an ideal world, you should give more attention to the small donor, but our society isn't idealand more often than not, the PAC and its donors get preferential treatment.

Enough negativity! Time to propose solutions!

...and that is a post by itself

What's It About? A Look at the Occupy Movement

I hope people start to see beyond the wall of talking points regurgitated by the mainstream media and political establishment about Occupy Wall Street. It's not about trying to impose a radical leftist agenda on the country

• It's about corruption and the removal of money (at least corporate) from politics
• It's about the restoration of a government responsive to the people and not just the wealthiest interests.
• It's about restoring the tax system so that the middle class doesn't pay an ETR higher than that of the upper brackets.
• It's about reducing the income disparity, which is now worse than some African States
• It's about making sure the destructive practices that brought down the economy in 2008 can't happen again.
• It's about making sure those who brought down the economy are not rewarded for it
• It's about protecting students from deceptive banks
• It's about reducing the debt load on students and graduates
• It's about protecting homeowners from deceptive banking practices
• It's about protecting consumers from deceptive credit card companies
• It's about Wall Street giving back to Main Street
• It's about CEOs receiving pay more comparable to that of their workers
• It's about so much more than FOX, CNN and MSNBC can understand
• It's about restoring the neutrality of the media
• It's about restoring the fairness of elections
• It's about eliminating corporatism in the educational system
• It's about making American students competitive in the global stage
• It's about ending the assault on worker's rights
• It's about ending the assault on democracy
• It's about investing in our country
• It's about investing in our people
• It's about eliminating corporatism in Washington
• It's about eliminating corporate influence on Capitol Hill
• It's about turning a culture of greed into a culture of responsibility
• It's about protecting consumers
• It's about ensuring fair treatment of workers around the world
• It's about helping the poor, not leaving them to rot away their days
• It's about reducing America's staggering poverty rate
• It's about protecting our environment
• It's about ending discrimination
• It's about protecting homeowners
• It's about giving everyone a chance to succeed
• It's about ending unnecessary aggression
• It's about ending the buying and selling of elections
• It's about ending the buying and selling of politicans
• It's about making healthcare effective and affordable to everyone
• It's about making the world a better place for everyone

this message can't fit into a 15-second soundbyte

Budget woes

So the GOP wants to cut down the federal budget...fine, that's something I, as a Democrat, can stand behind. But there a few agencies that even Republicans should oppose cutting federal funding for. These agencies are the nation's life-savers, they do extraordinary work warning the public about incoming disasters. the recent Japan - Pacific earthquake and tsunami demonstrates the need for these agencies to be fully funded because they're interconnected and are at the forefront of protection and notice from natural disasters.

These life-saver agencies under the GOP ax are:

• the United States Geological Survey (USGS) - provides earthquake data and hydrologic (river and flood) data
• the National Weather Service (NWS)
• the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), parent agency of NWS
• the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) - provides tsunami detection and advisories for the Pacific rim, except for Alaska, British Columbia and the US West Coast
• the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center - provides tsunami detection and warnings for Alaska, British Columbia and the US West Coast
• the Caribbean and Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning Centers - currently planned for implementation, responsibility for these areas lies with PTWC at the moment

By cutting funding to these agencies, the idiots in Congress are DIRECTLY endangering you, your property and your family. 

Let's say, it's a summer day, it's hot and humid, and the atmosphere is said to be unstable, later that day a cold front arrives from the west, bringing with it severe and possibly tornadic thunderstorms. Due to budget cuts, the NWS office is under-staffed, what do you think is going to happen from there, inevitably, a few thunderstorms will be missed and the warnings are issued too late, and people may be harmed

Hurricanes and tornadoes are complicated systems to track and monitor, and these prove to be the most deadly regular natural occurrences. the time for strong winter storms is passing, and conditions are becoming more favorable for strong and severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and later this Spring, hurricanes

To Congress: 

When a natural disaster strikes your district, don't go blaming the NWS for failing to issue warnings as you will anyway, you brought this on yourself and as a result of your lack of common sense, your district suffered. You will try to shift the blame elsewhere, but people like me and the 40,000+ people who support the NWS will remind you of your vote earlier, and we will make sure you feel the repercussions of your misinformed action. you have an honorable goal, but you are achieving it incorrectly, in the wake of a terrible disaster such as the ones that struck Japan, Chile and Haiti. You don't cut funding for the agencies that save lives, if anything you give them more so they can continue to improve and save lives.

If you want to cut the budget, start with your own pay, follow the lead of John Yarumuth (D-KY) and give up a substantial portion if not all of your pay, your six-figure salaries comprise a substantial portion of the federal budget. Also, find and remove the redundancies in the government, overlapping programs only contribute to unnecessary red tape. There's plenty more to cut, but these agencies don't deserve the treatment your about to put them, and ultimately the country through.

With the arrival of hurricane and tornado season just around the corner, and the wake of the tragedy in Japan, the need for these agencies is more clear than ever. Please, re-think your stance and fully fund these agencies, you, your constituents and the country will thank you in the end. 

Conspiracy of the Day - Feb 17

There are America-hating liberal terrorist sympathizers among us who have formed a secret society that plans to turn your church into a drive-through abortion clinic

Conspiracy of the Day - Feb 16

All you need to do is connect the dots to understand ACORN and Obama's Czars are acting on orders from Keith Olbermann so they can decorate your house artwork of Mussolini

Mideast turmoil

So clearly, the turmoil that started in Tunisia has spread. Now massive protests are breaking out in Egypt and to a lesser extent, Algeria and Jordan. One thing these nations have in common is that they are autocratic "democracies". In Tunisia, the former President was in office for years before the protests toppeled him. Now Hosini Mubarak in Egypt is facing the largest protests in Egypr in many years. However, the Egyptian president will likley survive this round, he's already deployed the army. However, this will not quell popular unrest, it could flare up again in a bit. News has also just filtered in from Jordan that minor protests have broken out asking King Hussein for political reforms. Hussein, one of the more moderate rulers of the area will also survive these disruptions.

Seeing as revolution is contagious, I think protests might break out in
Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran. Most of these rulers will use force to defend their positions. the next few weeks might be deadly in the Middle East, these countries need to be closely monitored, and if the governments are toppled, then a moderate government needs to be installed, fast. Anarchic conditions are prime territory for Islamo-Fascist and Radical groups to act. Islamists have acted up in Tunisia, one of the secular nations of the Arab World. Watch this situation, we might be seeing the end of autocratic regimes in the Middle East.

CNN has been covering the Egyptian situation extremely well: http://www.cnn.com/
BBC also does a good job: http://www.bbc.co.uk/

The republican field just narrowed

Literally seconds ago, Mike Pence of Indiana announced he WILL NOT run for President in 2012. Scratch one. we seem to be days away from Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee announcing their decisions.

The field stands like this for 2012

Democrats:
Pro-Life activist Randall Terry of NY
President Barack Obama (Unannounced as of yet, but a 99.9% chance of running)

Republicans
Talk show host Herman Craig of GA
Political Consultant Fred Karger of CA
Jimmy McMillian of NY (The Rent is Too Damn High)

The United States of Shame :(

Well, this is depressing. Each state is labeled by what they're worst at

AK- Highest suicide rate

AL- Highest rates of stroke

AR- State with the worst credit score 

AZ- Highest rate of alcoholism

CA- Worst air pollution

CO- Highest cocaine use

CT- Highest rate of breast cancer

DE- Most abortions

FL- Highest rate of identity theft

GA- Highest rate of illness

HI- Highest cost of living

IA- Highest average age

ID- Lowest level of government control (how did you calculate this?)

IL- Highest rate of robbery

IN- Least "green" state (subjective)

KS- Lowest general public health

KY-Highest number of cancer-related deaths

LA- Highest incidence of gonorrhea

MA- Worst drivers (Nope, FL or VA takes that title)

MD- Highest incidence of AIDS

ME- Lowest average IQ

MI- Highest unemployment (outdated?)

MN- Highest number of Tornadoes (really?)

MO- Highest rate of bankruptcy

MS- Most obese state

MT- Highest rate of drunk driving

NC- Lowest teacher salary

ND- Ugliest residents (subjective)

NH- Highest corporate taxes (this is a bad thing?)

NE- Highest rate of violence on females

NJ- Highest taxes

NM- Most anti-social (subjective)

NV- Highest crime rate

NY- Longest commute (agreed)

PA- Highest rate of arson

OH- Nerdiest state (opinion)

OK- Highest number of female criminals

OR- Highest homeless population

RI- Highest rate of drug use (Brown U?)

SC- Most mobile homes (this is bad?)

SD- Most rapes

TN- Most corrupt state (really?, I think this is subjective)

TX- Lowest rate of high school graduation

UT- Highest porn usage (hypocrites)

VA- Highest number of motorcycle-related deaths

VT- Highest rate of infertility (also the least use of deodorant)

WA- Highest rate of bestiality

WV- Highest rate of heart attacks

WI- Highest rate of binge drinking

WY- Highest number of fatal car crashes

the opposite of this will be posted soon