Sunday, December 18, 2011

IA Polling Mess



Take a look at these interesting IA polling trends, as both Cain and Gingrich collapse, the four second-tier candidates are re-surging. Both Perry and Bachmann are back to the double digits, Santorum is almost there and even Huntsman is climbing (his climb is far more evident in NH). Paul really hurt himself on Iran on Thursday and Perry, Bachmann and Santorum are hammering him on it, so a small decline in Paul's polling may be in store. If these trends continue, you're going to have an absolute mess in Iowa heading into the caucuses with Romney, Paul and maybe Gingrich (if he doesn't collapse entirely) fighting over the win there and the second-tier candidates (probably not Huntsman) between 10-15% and the gap between the first and second tier around 5-8%. Notice how on the graph, no candidate has ever exceeded 35%. It shows how volatile the GOP field is this time around




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