I do not trust polls, I never have and never will. Its simple logic, polling 700 people in a state with an electorate of nearly 2 million is simply not accurate. PERIOD. I think if you're going to poll for anything you need at least 1,000 respondents. Also, national polls are bullshit. Not only because of the small sample sizes but also because national trends, especially in Congress don't seem to carry over to the districts. It has been said that this year is a bad one for Democrats with Dems trailing Republicans in generic ballot polls. But if you look at the map, traditional Democratic strongholds like LA, NY, the Northeast and Chicago are firmly Democratic. 538.com gives Republicans 0% to 1% chances to win in many of those districts.
Back to MD for a bit. In MD, registered Dems outnumber Republicans 2:1. Even if Ehrlich managed to turnout 100% of the Republican vote, it would give him a good number but not enough. That's why crossing party boundaries is essential for any Republican to win in Maryland, with the exception of Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD6), his district is solidly red.
If Ehrlich or Eric Wargotz want to stand a chance against Democratic titans, Martin O'Malley and Barbara Mikulski, they need to change their message. Ehrlich needs to head back to center and Wargotz should just give up right now, Tea Party values do not coincide with the average Marylander. Ehrlich, today, suffered a major setback, the Republican Governor's Association, which has been running ads in the DC area, is pulling those ads off the air and cutting its investment by 50%. A Gonzales poll, released today also gives MOM a 5-point lead (It is important to note, Gonzales tends to lean to the right).
What do you think? Feel free to comment below
PS. I do not care who you vote for, JUST F***ING VOTE, either by mail, early or on Election Day. If you don't you have no authority to whine.
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